Its Not Over – Tilly
October 17, 2008 1 Comment
For the past couple of weeks, I have been very pessimistic at McCain’s chances. The economic disaster left McCain as much as 8 points down to Obama in the polls. There is certainly a lack of excitement among Republicans right now as it seems Obama has all the momentum going into the last two weeks of this campaign. But I have not lost all hope, there is a glimer, though small, still left. The past week McCain has been narrowing the gap in the polls. Rasmussen (the poll I trust most) has it 50-46 and Gallup has it even closer at 49-47. There are a couple of reasons why Obama’s numbers have begun to fall, if only oh so slightly.
First, the ACORN scandal is making a difference. The very fact Obama had to address this issue in the last debate hurts him. He HAS been connected to ACORN in the past. His campaign HAS given close to 1 million dollars to the organization. If this continues to be a topic of discussion, it will continue to push Obama’s numbers down. Second, the economy no longer seems as urgent of an issue. Though the stock market is still somewhat unstable, the conversation about the economic disaster has moved into more of a focus on how Obama and McCain will address the economy in general. Which, has become a discussion of tax policy. I believe McCain wins the debate if it is on tax policy. He has been able to frame Obama’s plan as a “redistribution of wealth” (this is largely because of “Joe the Plumber”). Americans do not like this idea and if they equate “redistribution of wealth” with Obama, McCain will gain ground.
There is one more issue which the Republicans are going to begin pushing hard this week. Obama supports driver licenses for illegal immigrants. Up to this point, this issue has not been brought up. But if it becomes an issue largely discussed, it will become a problem for the Obama campaign. This issue could infuriate independents. Watch this ad that will begin playing in swing states this week…
Am I optimistic about our chances? No. But I have not lost all hope. If McCain can put Obama on the defensive these last two weeks, he might be able to pull this out. Crazier things have happened.